Hello, I am still breathing and I admit, my commitments as a blogger have been somewhat slipping under the radar. As for now, this will be a brief posting. I simply want to illustrate why the current weird weather pattern is occurring (yes it is very cold) and as to what the future may hold. Today, the 4th November saw some lying snow in parts and for others, simply cold wet rain. I personally missed the fun and games but the following, courtesy of BBC weather illustrates how difficult in reality, the actual task of forecasting snowfall, truly is.
Sunday 4th November snowfall in Southern England
Looking further ahead (longer-term forecasting) is an equally unenviable task but someone who is up for such things is Matt Hugo, as shown below.
3rd November update from Matt Hugo’s wordpress blog
Posted by: Tony William Powellon
naturestimeline – courtesy of Tony William Powell
No, you did not imagine it, it has been miserable for far too long so I haven’t ventured out much. This is partly the reason for my lack of posts, alongside a busier working life. More news to come, honest!
Met Office News Blog
These are early figures covering 1 – 25 of April and not full month statistics, so are therefore very likely to change. Especially regarding ranking. Full month figures will not be available until provisionally Wednesday 2 May.
Figures for 1 – 25 April show the month so far has seen well above average rainfall across the UK, with 97 mm of rain recorded – this is 139% of the long-term monthly average (1971-2000). The wettest April in the records dating back to 1910 was 2000 which saw 120.3 mm of rain.
Currently the month is the 9th wettest April for the UK in the records. However, it’s not possible to say where the month will end up in the records until all the figures are in at the end of the month – especially as we are expecting heavy rain on Sunday.
Some areas have seen significant rainfall amounts with some parts of the…
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Posted in news, Scientific, weather
Tagged April, climate, climate change, cool, England, environment, Environment Agency, Met Office, meteorology, naturestimeline, news, Rain, showers, spring, united kingdom, weather
Having previously mentioned here, my passion for tracking Europe’s returning African visitors, I recently attempted an analysis of the latest data from the Gibraltar region. To do this, I reviewed a spreadsheet, set up in previous years that use the First dates of migrant bird sightings, sourced from Gibraltar Ornithological & Natural History Society. Having gone through my seven randomly chosen bird species’ arrival dates (on return from Africa), they were to reveal some intriguing trends.
Below you can see a link to a copy of the above-mentioned spreadsheet.
What does this data tell you? To me it hints at a good pattern match to 2010, when looking at the First known sightings of the seven listed bird species. Later, I will refer to the actual climate of two years ago. Meanwhile, a question arises. When looking at these bird arrival statistics, is it possible to predict the future climate for the United Kingdom, i.e. what will spring and summer weather be like? Currently, the latest news from Gibraltar indicated a relaxation of the High Pressure areas that have largely plagued that part of Europe since last autumn. Furthermore, it is a fact that Low Pressure systems with their associated weather fronts can move the migrant birds on mass, which sometimes result in bird falls (exceptionally large numbers). What effect if any, will this have on the United Kingdom, being that it is still under the firm grip of High Pressure and has been for several weeks now?
Has the current atmospheric situation resulted in a lack of bird movement? Oh, no! With quite a few spring overshoots such as Night Herons (Nycticorax nycticorax) and Hoopoes (Upupa epops) already in, you can add to the mix the more usual Cuckoos (Cuculus canorus), Willow Warblers (Phylloscopus trochilus), Wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe) and Blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla)*. Is it possible we could be having an early migration season this year?
2010’s weather for the UK, based on my local data proved a dry and rather warm spring (March through May) and cool wet end to summer (June through August). The official data from the Met Office shown here – Spring 2010 and Summer 2010 roughly correlated to mine.
Newbury 2010 climate
As you can see from the above, spring came early, as did autumn in 2010. Watch this space for further news of any resemblance with that particular year.
*as ever, Thanks to Birdguides
Posted by: Tony William Powellon
Posted in birding, phenology, weather
Tagged Africa, Autumn, Bird migration, Bird news, Birdguides, Birding, birds, Blackcap, Citizen science, climate, climate change, Cuckoo, Europe, Gibraltar, Gibraltar Ornithological & Natural History Society, Hoopoe, Met Office, migrants, migration, Night Heron, Northern Wheatear, Ornithology, phenology, research, seasons, spring, summer, weather, Willow Warbler